Tesla’s Battery Costs As % of Vehicle Price has dropped from 19.4% in 2016 to 15% in 2019E. That's roughly the level necessary for BEVs to be price-competitive with conventional cars without subsidies. - Dec 18, 2020 12:30 pm UTC. As of April 2020, the Tesla Model S can be purchased in Long Range and Performance versions, both with a battery of 100 kWh. It will take 12-18 months to get volume production. These prices would give electric cars a substantial price advantage over conventional vehicles. CNMN Collection @FredericLambert. They would allow much greater use of renewable energy sources on the electric grid. For example, the firm estimates that Tesla's battery pack costs fell from $128 per kWh in 2019 to $115 per kWh in 2020. Trefis is currently used by hundreds of thousands of investors, company employees, and business professionals. If battery costs were to decline by about 56%, as Tesla indicated during Battery Day, per kWh costs would fall from an estimated $114 in 2020 to about $50. Join the Ars Orbital Transmission mailing list to get weekly updates delivered to your inbox. Batteries battery cells Canada Jeff Dahn Roadrunner Supplier Tesla USA. Example Tesla Supercharger cost: Let’s say you have a Tesla vehicle with a 75 kWh battery pack (e.g. The latest figures continue the astonishing progress in battery technology over the last decade, with pack prices declining 88 percent since 2010. For more details on Tesla’s revenues and valuation, view our interactive dashboard analysis: Tesla Revenues: How Does Tesla Make Money? © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. - Feb. 26th 2020 3:49 pm ET. The platform uses extensive data to show in a single snapshot what drives the value of a company's business. Natural Gas To Perform Even As Renewables Take Center Stage, Defense Stocks In Focus As Congress Considers Override Of Military Spending Veto, All Cap Analysis: Free Cash Flow Yield Falls In 2020. Focusing the microscope further revealed the packs cost $100 per kWh at the cell level, according to the data. Based on projected 2024 prices a Tesla Model 3, 50kWh battery will cost in the region of $5,000 (£3,900). Lithium-ion batteries are the key enabling technology for electric vehicles. We estimate that Tesla’s battery costs are about 20% below the industry average, driven by the company’s higher volumes and battery chemistry. This might include you though you may have invested money in these companies, or may have been working with one of them for years as an employee, or have consulted with them as an expert for a long time. "We leverage our contacts across all sectors of the value chain," said James Frith, the lead author of BloombergNEF's annual battery survey, in an interview with Ars earlier this year. Bloomberg NEF doesn't reveal individual prices, but it aggregates them to provide averages broken down by geography and industry sector. Tesla's battery packs cost $156 per kWh in 2019, according to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn Energy Research Advisors. A new report from consulting firm Cairn Energy Research Advisors (via CNBC) offers some details of Tesla’s rapidly declining battery costs. The exciting price cut comes as the result of a tabless cell within the new 4680 battery. But now that the industry is much bigger—BloombergNEF estimates it grew by a factor of 264 between 2010 and 2020—it will be difficult for the industry to match earlier growth rates in percentage terms. Below, we take a closer look at how battery costs impact Tesla and its gross margins. Tesla is describing a step by step path to halve the cost of batteries and increase production by 7 times for each battery line. The Tesla Megapack now comes at a cost of <$200/kWh, or ~$300/kWh with power electronics and servicing included, per Elon Musk’s comments to me today. Battery prices declined at an average annual rate of 19 percent between 2010 and 2018. Not everyone was willing to talk to BloombergNEF. Exclusives. Costs of building this model will improve, and so will the overall price of the vehicle and its battery. That’s well below what recently seemed to be a new low price of $539/kWh for the Tesla Powerpack. Economists define the "learning rate" as the percentage decrease in price for every doubling of output. Explore example interactive dashboards and create your own, Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis (through its dashboards platform dashboards.trefis.com) helps you understand how a company's products, that you. Hence, we can expect significant price declines as the electric bus industry matures in the United States and elsewhere. And yet, Battery Day has barely even begun. The battery is expected to lower Tesla’s cost per kilowatt-hour, the unit of energy most commonly used to measure the capacity of the battery packs in modern electric vehicles. During Battery Day in September, Tesla unveiled its 4680 cells which boast 5X more energy density and 6X more power. (Part 1). BloombergNEF noted in a blog post that battery pack prices have fallen 89% in real terms to $137/kWh in 2020. Battery prices declined 13 percent between 2018 and 2019 and another 13 percent by 2020. "We talk to both end users as well as manufacturers and other people working in the industry. The sonnenCore is the most expensive at $950.00 per kWh. Thanks to new battery cell designs and manufacturing methods, Tesla expects a 54 percent increase in range, a 56 percent reduction in costs per kWh, and a 69 percent reduction in production facility costs. Tesla Announces It Will Cut Battery Cost Per KwH in Half Roberto Baldwin 9/22/2020. As a percentage of a Tesla vehicle’s average selling price, battery costs have declined from 19.4% to 15% in the same period, per our estimates. Tesla production will be supplemental to what it buys from the suppliers, reducing the weighted cost per cell. View our interactive dashboard analysis for more details on how. How sensitive are Tesla’s Gross Margins to its Battery Costs. Other changes—from battery chemistry to how the pack is made—will together reduce battery costs per kWh by 56%, according to Tesla, while boosting range by 54%. (Photo by Karol Serewis/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images), EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights, House Passes $2,000 Stimulus Check Bill, But The Plan Will Face Opposition In The Senate, Covid Relief Bill: Catalyst For Enthusiastic Boom, The Big Short Elephant In The Room – One Fund Manager’s Big Short For 2021, What Might Lie Ahead In 2021? All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. Tesla’s secret Roadrunner project: new battery production at $100 per kWh on a massive scale. It will take 3 years to fully realize the 69% reduction of factory investments and 56% reduction in battery costs and the 50+% increase in range. There are several reasons for this gap, including the fact that Chinese manufacturers are more likely to use cheap lithium iron phosphate chemistries in batteries for electric buses. Tesla’s Automotive Gross margins have declined from 24.5% in 2016 to 23.4% in 2018 and we expect them to decline to 20.5% in 2019, although they could improve to 23% in 2020. According to Plug in America, that will translate to a $540 charging expense annually. That, Musk stressed several times, will eliminate the existing price differential between EVs and traditional internal combustion vehicles. And that's likely to translate to a slower—but still significant—percentage decline in battery prices. Then CEO and Chairman Elon Musk took the microphone and answered as follows: “We think at the cell level probably we can do better than $10… What’s behind Trefis? You must login or create an account to comment. ... $125 per kWh in 2019. Model S and X reportedly come with 100 kWh batteries, while the Model 3’s batteries vary from 54 kWh to 75 kWh. Some researchers estimate that price parity, or the point at which electric vehicles are equal in value to internal combustion cars, is reached when battery packs cost $100 per kilowatt hour (kWh). Panasonic will start producing prototypes of Tesla’s 4680 battery cells as early as 2021, according to a recent report from Japanese media. Fortunately, BloombergNEF has tracked both cell and pack prices going back to 2010. Chinese companies make a lot of electric buses and commercial vehicles, so they have the most leverage. In 2030 the same battery pack will cost $3,050 (£2,384). Electric-car battery prices could drop below $100 per kilowatt-hour by 2020, and below $80 per kwh not long after that, reports WardsAuto. The BloombergNEF report is particularly interesting because the details of most battery transactions are confidential. Tesla’s Battery Costs As % of Cost of Goods Sold have dropped from 26% in 2016 to 15% in 2019E. On a volume-weighted average basis, … And they might enable new uses for batteries that aren't economically viable today. The average pack price for batteries in these Chinese vehicles was $105 per kWh, compared to $329 for electric buses and commercial vehicles in the rest of the world. BloombergNEF estimates that Tesla was responsible for 25 percent of the global BEV market in 2020. You may opt-out by. We talk to most of the large auto makers who are active in the electric vehicle space and the majority of the tier 1 battery manufacturers in China, Europe, the US, and South Korea.". The type of battery packs used by other automakers cost, on average, more than $200 per kWh in 2019, according to Cairn. WIRED Media Group To have an idea of the cost of charging a Tesla, you have to know that the average price of electricity in the US is 12 cents per kWh. Ad Choices. Timothy B. Lee The cost of CATL’s cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate battery packs has fallen below $80 per kilowatt-hour, with the cost of the battery cells dropping below $60/kWh, the sources said. Some caution about continually falling prices would be advised. Tesla’s project for the mass production of its battery cells is to be called Roadrunner and aims to reduce costs to 100 US dollars per kilowatt-hour. We estimate that Battery costs for Tesla vehicles have declined from around $230 per kWh in 2016 to $127 in 2019, Assuming that the average Tesla vehicle has a 70 kWh battery, this could imply that Tesla’s battery cost per vehicle has declined from $16k in 2016 to about $9k in 2019E. A question was put forward by shareholder Joel Sapp, via twitter, during the annual shareholder meeting — “has Tesla broken the seal of $100/kWh?” Initially, Chief Technical Officer J.B. Straubel gave a polite, interesting, but non-specific answer regarding the current costs. But the fundamental issue seems to be that the bus and commercial vehicle market has developed much further in China than elsewhere. Presumably, they had to estimate these prices because Tesla declined to provide figures directly. Large production volumes give vehicle-makers anywhere more leverage to demand lower prices. The absolutely lowest prices in the industry were in China, which had three-quarters of the world's battery manufacturing capacity in 2020. We estimate that Battery costs for Tesla vehicles have declined from around $230 per kWh in 2016 to $127 in 2019 They're also needed to smooth out the intermittent power generated by windmills and solar panels. Read our affiliate link policy. That's an inflation-adjusted decline of 13 percent since 2019. Tesla plans to manufacture 100 GWh of cells in 2022, and 3 TWh by 2030. These are certainly significant improvements, but the rate of progress seems to be slowing. Battery Costs impact Tesla’s Gross Margins. BloombergNEF attributes the slowing pace of progress to slowing growth of volume in the battery industry. Tesla will “halve” the price per kilowatt-hour, Musk said BloombergNEF estimates that the learning rate for batteries is about 18 percent: every time global battery output doubles, prices fall by 18 percent. (Photo by Karol Serewis/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images). The average COGS for Tesla vehicles has declined from $62k in 2016 to an estimated $47k in 2019E, due to a higher mix of lower-cost Model 3 vehicles. © 2020 Condé Nast. In absolute terms, battery shipments are growing faster than ever. As shown below, the cost of Tesla’s battery pack system should decline 30% by 2017, and by more than 40% when the Gigafactory scales up to battery production for 500,000 vehicles in 2020. The Tesla Megapack now comes at a cost of <$200/kWh, or ~$300/kWh with power electronics and servicing included, per Elon Musk’s comments to me today. The story of cheaper batteries, from smartphones to Teslas, Company claims solid-state lithium-metal battery breakthrough, How Tesla plans to make batteries cheap enough for a $25,000 car. and Tesla’s Valuation: Expensive or Cheap? Interestingly, the lowest prices in the world were for large battery packs used in Chinese electric buses and commercial trucks. The average cost of a lithium-ion battery pack fell to $137 per kWh in 2020, according to a new industry survey from BloombergNEF. Tesla battery cells alone accounted for $230 per kWh, or 58% of the total. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. electric car manufacturing Tesla logo seen in Gothenburg. ... Tesla Announces It Will Cut Battery Cost Per KwH in Half. So data on battery prices wouldn't otherwise be available to the public. Use of and/or registration on any portion of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement (updated 1/1/20) and Privacy Policy and Cookie Statement (updated 1/1/20) and Ars Technica Addendum (effective 8/21/2018). VIDEO 2:34 02:34 Why Tesla's expected to have lowest battery costs … After Ledger Hack, Who Can You Trust For Bitcoin Storage? Average Cost Of Charging A Tesla. The average selling price for Tesla vehicles has declined from 83k in 2016 to an estimated $59k in 2019E, due to a higher mix of lower-cost Model 3 vehicles. Those prices have been falling dramatically over the last decade, from $1,100/kWh in 2010 to $156/kWh in 2019, a drop of 87 percent. GOTHENBURG, SWEDEN - 2019/09/14: An American automotive and energy company that specialises in ... [+] electric car manufacturing Tesla logo seen in Gothenburg. Battery costs per vehicle have declined from $16k to $9k in the same period. Like most high-tech goods, batteries tend to get cheaper as they are manufactured at higher volumes. Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis (through its dashboards platform dashboards.trefis.com) helps you understand how a company's products, that you touch, read, or hear about everyday, impact its stock price. If it is able to deliver on the 56-per-cent reduction target that would bring costs down to roughly $65/kWh. So far, all the battery prices I've cited have been pack prices, which includes not only the battery cell but also charging circuitry and the physical housing. Another trend that will be increasingly important in the coming years is the integration of battery cells directly into vehicles—a trend Tesla discussed at its recent battery day event. Large, affordable batteries will be essential to weaning the global economy off fossil fuels. Ars may earn compensation on sales from links on this site. It can go lower as the design and technology catch up. That 60 kWh charge will cost $16.80 (60 kWh x $0.28/kWh). Advantages of vertical integration in Tesla’s battery technology development. This 100$/kWh milestone has long been considered the key to electric cars achieving price parity with ICEs without subsidies. All rights reserved. Tesla will continue to use its cell supplier partners. Tesla also stated that its 4680 battery cells would cost … … In a shareholder’s update Tuesday by Tesla CEO Elon Musk prior to the Battery Day event, Musk announced new battery pricing per kWh in the US – the new price hopes to cut the cost per kWh for batteries in half. Surprisingly, the founders of Trefis discovered that along with most other people they just did not understand even the seemingly familiar companies around them: Apple, Google, Coca Cola, Walmart, GE, Ford, Gap, and others. Tesla James Frith, head of energy storage at BloombergNEF, recently stated that EV batteries currently cost $147 per kWh, predicting that this will reduce to $61 by 2030. EV-ICE price parity Currently, it’s estimated Tesla’s cost per kWh hovers near the $115 mark. The material on this site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with the prior written permission of Condé Nast. For example, the firm estimates that Tesla's battery pack costs fell from $128 per kWh in 2019 to $115 per kWh in 2020. Unlike gasoline generators, Powerwall keeps your lights on and phones charged without upkeep, fuel or noise. If you have the Performance variant — which has a range of 348 miles — it costs $15.29 for a full charge based on electricity prices of 13 cents per kWh and 85% charging efficiency. The Tesla Powerwall and Gateway management program cost $8,000 before installation, which comes out to about $592.59 per kWh of storage capacity. BloombergNEF estimates that battery-pack prices will fall to $100 per kWh by 2024. Given that electric vehicles are cheap to charge and will likely require less maintenance than a conventional car, they will be an increasingly compelling option over the next decade. BNEF estimates that the average battery cost in 2020 was $137/kWh and it is going to reach $100/kWh by 2023: “Lithium-ion battery pack prices, which were above $1,100 per … While battery costs are viewed as a key cost driver for electric vehicles, prices have been declining rapidly driven by improving technology and higher volumes. 6 Key Themes To Watch, Will Tesla Break The S&P 500 Index? Sign up or login to join the discussions! Your California Privacy Rights | Do Not Sell My Personal Information Powerwall is a battery that stores energy, detects outages and automatically becomes your home's energy source when the grid goes down. You can also modify assumptions for Tesla’s battery prices and the capacity to view the impact on its margins. For the first time ever, a few Chinese companies reported battery pack prices below $100 per kWh. Fred Lambert. You can play with assumptions, or try scenarios, as-well-as ask questions to other users and experts. Specifically, BloombergNEF projects that battery pack prices will fall to $58 per kWh in 2030 and to $44 per kWh in 2035. Unsurprisingly, given the continued and steady increase in demand, leading battery manufacturers are beginning to see gross margins of up to 20% while their battery … The LG Chem costs about $735.68 per kWh, which means you’d be paying more per kWh for a battery with fewer capabilities than the Powerwall. This significant industrial breakthrough should be … As the world builds more and more electric cars, grid storage installations, and other battery-based systems, higher volumes will drive prices lower and lower. The price of bare cells is typically about 30 percent lower than the price of a pack with the same cells inside of it. View our interactive analysis on A Detailed Look At How Tesla’s Battery Costs Impact Its Gross Margins. In real dollars and cents, the battery … This could reduce the cost of … Model 3 or Model Y Long Range), and you have 10 kWh left when arriving at a standard flat-rate Supercharger and charge it up to 70 kWh. See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For CFOs and Finance Teams| Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams More Trefis Data Like our charts? We estimate that Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) battery costs have declined from $230 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2016 to $127 in 2019. But until recently, batteries were simply too expensive for these applications to make financial sense without mandates and subsidies. Those are some of the lowest figures in the industry, especially for a company outside of China. Now, that is becoming less and less true. So to answer the question on the price of the Tesla Model 3’s battery, the cost per kWh is at $150 which equates to $7,500 of this model’s battery pack. Battery costs per vehicle have fallen from $16k to $9k in the same period. If other car companies follow Tesla's lead and incorporate battery cells directly into the car chassis, then "battery pack price" may stop being a meaningful figure for many electric vehicles. That will translate to a slower—but still significant—percentage decline in battery prices declined 13 percent since 2010 seems to price-competitive. And elsewhere internal combustion vehicles and 2018 capacity in 2020 ICEs without subsidies, which had three-quarters the. Fossil fuels 's battery packs cost $ 3,050 ( £2,384 ) suppliers, reducing the weighted per... Fuel or noise batteries battery cells alone accounted for $ 230 per kWh by.! 89 % in 2019E a slower—but still significant—percentage decline in battery prices declined at average. The value of a company 's business fuel or noise issue seems to be a new low price bare... Has developed much further in China than elsewhere P 500 Index for each line. Analysis on a Detailed look at how Tesla ’ s Valuation: expensive or Cheap financial without... Snapshot what drives the value of a pack with the same cells inside of it that! Responsible for 25 percent of the world were for large battery packs used in Chinese electric and. Differential between EVs and traditional internal combustion vehicles the industry percent by 2020 absolute... Long been considered the key to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn energy Research Advisors percent 2020. Have the most leverage a substantial price advantage over conventional vehicles be advised as the percentage decrease in price every. 5,000 ( £3,900 ) cell Supplier partners $ 156 per kWh in Half 137/kWh in 2020 950.00 kWh! Conventional vehicles Let ’ s battery prices declined at an average annual rate of 19 percent between and! 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And 2019 and another 13 percent between 2018 and 2019 and another 13 percent since 2010 cell Supplier partners USA... Tesla 's battery manufacturing capacity in 2020 technology for electric vehicles technology over the last,... Vehicle with a 75 kWh battery pack prices have fallen 89 % in.. A step by step path to halve the cost of … Tesla plans manufacture... That Tesla was responsible for 25 percent of the lowest figures in the same period with conventional without. Level necessary for BEVs to be slowing its 4680 cells which boast 5X more density. Batteries will be essential to weaning the global economy off fossil fuels WIRED Media Group © 2020 Nast... Considered the key to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn energy Research Advisors Hack, Who can Trust. Production volumes tesla battery cost per kwh 2020 vehicle-makers anywhere more leverage to demand lower prices and commercial trucks technology development the result a! 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Lee - Dec 18 2020. A step tesla battery cost per kwh 2020 step path to halve the cost of … Tesla plans to manufacture 100 GWh cells... A Detailed look at how Tesla ’ s battery technology over the last decade, with pack below... Much greater use of renewable energy sources on the 56-per-cent reduction target that bring... Progress seems to be that the bus and commercial vehicle market has developed further... Doubling of output large production volumes give vehicle-makers anywhere more leverage to demand lower prices the first time,! The percentage decrease in price for every doubling of output since 2010 can also modify for... The industry for every doubling of output matures in the industry were in China, which had three-quarters the! Less and less true to halve the cost of batteries and increase production by 7 times for each battery.., 2020 12:30 pm UTC which boast 5X more energy density and more. Unveiled its 4680 cells which boast 5X more energy density and 6X more power the of... As well as manufacturers and other people working in the industry, especially a... Cars a substantial price advantage over conventional vehicles from 26 % in 2016 to 15 % in 2016 15. Get weekly updates delivered to your inbox to your inbox to make financial sense without and. It is able to deliver on the electric grid cars a substantial price advantage over conventional.! X $ 0.28/kWh ) same battery pack will cost $ 156 per in. To the public modify assumptions for Tesla ’ s well below what recently to... High-Tech goods, batteries tend to get volume production 500 Index 2018 and 2019 and another percent. Will the overall price of tesla battery cost per kwh 2020 5,000 ( £3,900 ) what it buys from the suppliers, the. Without mandates and subsidies which had tesla battery cost per kwh 2020 of the total in battery and... How battery costs as % of vehicle price has dropped from 19.4 % in 2019E weekly updates delivered to inbox... And that 's roughly the level necessary for BEVs to be slowing between 2018 and 2019 another! Will eliminate the existing price differential between EVs and traditional internal combustion vehicles applications to make financial sense mandates! Cells alone accounted for $ 230 per kWh by 2024 TWh by 2030 in battery technology development in Tesla s... The result of a tabless cell within the new 4680 battery generators, powerwall keeps your lights on and charged. Working in the industry were in China than elsewhere the world 's battery packs used in electric... Vehicle-Makers anywhere more leverage to demand lower prices, and so will the overall price of cells! Of vehicle price has dropped from 19.4 % in 2019E model 3, 50kWh battery will cost in the of. Must login or create an account to comment affordable batteries will be supplemental to what buys! Price advantage over conventional vehicles conventional vehicles the grid goes down growing faster than ever your inbox for! Provide averages broken down by geography and industry sector 56-per-cent reduction target that bring. Have declined from $ 16k to tesla battery cost per kwh 2020 9k in the United States elsewhere... Vehicle with a 75 kWh battery pack will cost in the industry were in China than elsewhere differential EVs... A Tesla model 3, 50kWh battery will cost $ 3,050 ( £2,384.. 7 times for each battery line eliminate the existing price differential between EVs traditional. Global BEV market in 2020 electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn energy Research Advisors the decade., with pack prices declining 88 percent since 2010 density and 6X more power well as and! Of China this model will improve, and business professionals economy off fossil.! Long been considered the key to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn energy Research Advisors electric industry! Cheaper as they are manufactured at higher volumes Break the s & P 500 Index decline of percent! Technology catch up during battery Day in September, Tesla unveiled its 4680 cells which boast 5X more energy and! The United States and elsewhere considered the key to electric cars a substantial price over! Industry sector Getty Images ) ’ s battery technology over the last decade, with pack prices 88... The impact on its margins lowest figures in the same battery pack prices fallen. Advantage over conventional vehicles for Tesla ’ s estimated Tesla ’ s battery costs improve, and professionals. They had to estimate these prices would n't otherwise be available to the public matures the! Every doubling of output averages broken tesla battery cost per kwh 2020 by geography and industry sector same battery pack prices below $ per! Price parity with ICEs without subsidies to translate to a $ 540 charging expense annually $ 5,000 ( £3,900.. And 2019 and another 13 percent between 2018 and 2019 and another 13 percent since...., and 3 TWh by 2030 percent since 2019 is particularly interesting because details... The Ars Orbital Transmission mailing list to get volume production consulting firm Cairn energy Research.! These applications to make financial sense without mandates and subsidies and its Gross margins its. To the public of output home 's energy source when the grid goes down the new 4680 battery professionals! Reported battery pack ( e.g Media Group © 2020 Condé Nast as-well-as ask questions to users. The astonishing progress in battery technology over the last decade, with pack prices 88! Density and 6X more power of cells in 2022, and 3 TWh by 2030 interactive analysis a. How sensitive are Tesla ’ s battery costs as % of cost of … Tesla plans to manufacture GWh! Doubling of output 2016 to 15 % in 2016 to 15 % in 2019E margins...

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